China’s export controls tighten global critical‑minerals supply chains

Australia’s tungsten output is set to fall from 136,000 mtu in 2024‑25 to 117,000 mtu in 2025‑26, even as global demand rises for the metal used in defence projectiles, semiconductor fabs and industrial tools. China, which produced about 80 % of the world’s tungsten in 2025, has imposed strict export licences, cutting its APT shipments by roughly 70 % and prompting supply shortages.

The United States will ban tungsten sourced from China, Iran, Russia, North Korea and Myanmar for Department of Defense contracts starting 1 January 2027 under the DFARS rules, adding a further layer of restriction for a metal deemed strategically essential. Prices on the Shanghai Metals Market have edged up, trading around US$202 per kg.

South Korea is confronting a similar strategic challenge. Officials warn that refining capacity for critical minerals is now even more concentrated than mining, with the three largest refining nations controlling about 86 % of global capacity. Korean industry leaders stress the need to diversify sourcing, boost recycling and build supply‑chain resilience as China tightens export controls across multiple minerals.

Both countries are responding to the same geopolitical risk: reliance on China for critical inputs threatens industrial competitiveness and national security, prompting policy shifts and private‑sector initiatives to secure alternative supplies.