China's Grip on Graphite Market Deepens as Global Demand Rises

Graphite prices have remained low despite growing battery demand because the People's Republic of China has expanded its control over the supply chain. China now supplies roughly 80 % of mined natural graphite and commands about 98 % of the graphite‑anode market, with more than 95 % of global anode‑processing capacity. Amy Bennett, principal consultant at Fastmarkets, said China “has been able to keep these prices at artificially low levels” and that a real shift in control is at least five years away. The United States filed anti‑dumping and countervailing duty petitions, but Chinese producers quickly rerouted shipments through Indonesia to avoid the duties.

The International Energy Agency’s latest outlook projects a sharp rise in demand for critical minerals through 2040, with graphite demand expected to double, copper and nickel investment exceeding $300 billion each, and lithium demand more than tripling. The agency warns that supply gaps will persist, noting that China accounts for over 90 % of battery‑grade graphite production and holds large shares of refining capacity for copper, lithium, cobalt and rare‑earths. Meeting the projected demand will require more than $750 billion in mining and refining investment.