China's Q2 GDP growth forecast slows to 4.5% as AI‑fuelled exports offset property slump

Chinese authorities expect GDP growth of about 4.5% year‑on‑year in the second quarter, down from the 5% recorded in the first quarter and roughly in line with Beijing’s 4.5‑5% annual target. The forecast was released by chief economists ahead of the National Bureau of Statistics data scheduled for 16 July.

The slowdown is linked to a prolonged property‑sector crisis and weak domestic consumption, with retail sales still below growth for several months. Growth is being supported by a sharp rise in high‑value‑added exports, especially AI‑related technology, electric‑vehicle components and renewable‑energy equipment, which jumped about 20% in May and helped push the trade surplus to a record $1.2 trillion. Analysts note that external risks such as the Middle‑East conflict, a pending US tariff truce and possible EU protection measures could threaten the export boost. Policymakers are expected to maintain a moderately easy monetary stance and consider targeted fiscal support, while large reserve‑requirement or interest‑rate cuts appear unlikely.