IEA warns China’s rare‑earth curbs could jeopardise $6.5 trillion of global output

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that if China fully implements its expanded export restrictions on rare earths, about $6.5 trillion of downstream production in the automotive, high‑tech, defence and energy sectors could be exposed to supply disruptions. The agency notes that the United States and Europe together would account for roughly half of the economic impact. A similar set of controls on graphite could threaten an additional $300 billion of production. China supplies more than 90 % of processed rare earths and graphite and 66 % of the mined rare‑earth resource. The IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook, led by Executive Director Fatih Birol, warns that “vast amounts of economic value depend on relatively small volumes of critical minerals, whose supply chains remain highly concentrated and therefore vulnerable.” The report calls for strategic stockpiles of 11 critical minerals (initial investment $9.2 billion, annual cost $0.9 billion) and notes that public financing for alternative projects rose to $65 billion between 2023‑2025. New refining projects in the United States and Malaysia have already cut China’s processing share from 90 % in 2023 to 85 % in 2025, with a potential decline to about 70 % by 2035. The European Union is also forming a crisis‑management team to prepare for a possible trade dispute with China over the curbs.