CIA report warns of potential civil war or state collapse in Israel

A classified CIA assessment, titled ‘Fracture from Within’, warns that Israel faces the risk of civil war or state collapse. The report, authored by experts from the CIA’s Red Cell, highlights a volatile combination of internal pressures affecting the Jewish citizenry.

Key factors contributing to this instability include a declining economy, rising military spending, and record-high food prices. The report also notes a severe personnel crisis within the Israeli military driven by the Haredi crisis, as ultra-Orthodox Jews continue to evade military service.

Social and political tensions are further exacerbated by the presence of heavily armed veterans returning from prolonged combat with psychological trauma, increased settler violence, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political struggles. The assessment suggests that Netanyahu’s management of the conflict in Gaza and previous attempts at judicial reform have deepened existing societal fissures.