Citi flags oil price surge risk from US‑Iran clash as heatwaves drive US power‑grid upgrades

Citi warned that a prolonged conflict between the United States and Iran could sharply curtail Gulf oil output, potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz and cutting 5‑10% of global supply. The bank estimates such a shock could push crude prices to $180‑200 a barrel, reminiscent of the 1970 oil crisis, and may force governments to ration fuel. While the scenario is deemed unlikely, Citi says the economic fallout would be severe.

Separately, analysts note that extreme heat is becoming a permanent factor for businesses. In North America, Europe and Latin America heatwaves now occur roughly twice as often as in the mid‑20th century, straining electricity grids and prompting $3.9 billion of upgrades by New York’s Con Edison to replace aging transformers and cables. Companies that build grid equipment, storage systems and advanced cooling solutions for data centres – such as Carrier, Trane Technologies and Johnson Controls – are positioned to benefit. As one climate‑economics expert remarked, “This is the question of a trillion‑dollar issue.”