Climate change and El Niño drive record global heat and drought

Global temperatures and extreme weather events have reached record levels due to the combined effects of climate change and the El Niño phenomenon. In 2026, approximately 1.5 billion people worldwide experienced at least one month of dangerous heat. Data from the ERA5 dataset indicates that August 2026 was the hottest month recorded since 1940, and Western Europe experienced its warmest meteorological summer on record.

In Europe, heatwaves have led to significant human and economic costs. Reports suggest that four major heatwaves contributed to at least 35,000 premature deaths on the continent. Additionally, climate change has made the current European drought three times more likely, threatening assets valued at approximately 2.6 trillion euros. Seven of the ten countries experiencing the most unusual temperature spikes this summer are located in Europe.

Scientists note that the current El Niño cycle may be the strongest in nearly 150 years of recorded history. While the direct impact of El Niño on weather patterns in regions like Poland may be limited, its indirect consequences are expected to be significant, particularly through the potential for rising food prices as tropical agricultural production is affected by shifting wind and moisture patterns.