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Europe forest fire areas could triple due to climate change
New research from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Senckenberg Society warns that climate change could nearly triple the area affected by forest fires in Europe by the end of the century.
According to the study published in Global Change Biology, the impact depends heavily on emission levels. In a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6) where warming is limited to approximately 1.8 degrees Celsius, the annually burned area is projected to increase by about 39 percent. However, in a high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0) with warming reaching 3.6 degrees Celsius, the burned area could increase by 192 percent.
Maik Billing, the study's lead author, noted that while improved fire management, early detection, and prevention can mitigate these increases by over 70 percent, such measures cannot replace the necessity of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The study highlights that increased fire activity will be most pronounced in the Mediterranean, Western Europe, and Central Europe, including regions that have historically experienced fewer fires.
This research follows a severe fire season in the EU, where over 600,000 hectares have already burned, marking it as one of the worst seasons on record.
Entities
Europe · Global Change Biology · Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change · Maik Billing · Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research · Senckenberg Nature Research Society · Senckenberg Society
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Under a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), the annually burned area in Europe could increase by approximately 39 percent by the end of the century. naukawpolsce.pl · tech.wp.pl
- [● 2 SOURCES] Under a high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0) with 3.6 degrees Celsius of warming, the burned area could increase by approximately 192 percent. naukawpolsce.pl · tech.wp.pl
- [● 2 SOURCES] A study published in Global Change Biology predicts a significant increase in forest fire areas in Europe due to climate change. naukawpolsce.pl · tech.wp.pl
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Over 600,000 hectares have burned in the EU so far this season, making it the third worst season after 2022 and 2025. www.kibrisnethaber.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] Increased fire management, prevention, and early detection can mitigate these increases by more than 70 percent. naukawpolsce.pl · tech.wp.pl