Climate Change Expands Malaria Risk Across Africa, Study Finds

A new study published in *Nature* projects that rising temperatures will shift malaria transmission into cooler parts of southern and eastern Africa. By 2050, cases could rise as much as 20% in coastal southern Africa and about 5% in the East African highlands of Kenya and Ethiopia, as well as in Angola, Zambia and eastern South Africa. Conversely, the hottest regions such as Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali are expected to see a roughly 5% decline, and parts of the Sahel may become too hot for mosquitoes to survive, potentially eliminating the disease there.

The World Health Organization reported 579,000 malaria deaths in Africa in 2024, three‑quarters of them children under five. The authors note that limiting global warming to 2 °C would prevent about five additional malaria cases per 1,000 children in southern Africa and yield even larger benefits in the highlands. They call for stronger malaria surveillance and control measures alongside emissions reductions, especially in regions with limited experience managing the disease.