Climate change increases heat stress vulnerability for elderly populations

A study published in the medical journal The Lancet indicates that global warming will disproportionately increase heat stress among elderly populations. The research modeled human heat tolerance limits across different age groups (18-39, 40-59, and 60+) against various global temperature increase scenarios ranging from 1 to 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Under a 1.5-degree warming scenario, an estimated 290 million of the world's 1.33 billion elderly people will face at least 180 hours of uncompensable heat stress annually. In contrast, a 4-degree warming scenario is projected to result in 490 million young people out of 2.8 billion experiencing similar levels of heat stress.

In regions such as South Asia and the Persian Gulf, elderly populations could face continuous day and night heat exposure for approximately three months if temperatures rise by 3 degrees or more. High-density areas like the Indo-Gangetic Plain, East China, West Africa, and Southeast Asia are expected to be heavily impacted. Additionally, if greenhouse gas emissions remain uncontrolled, elderly populations in Southwest Europe, particularly in Portugal and Spain, are expected to be affected between 2041 and 2060.