Climate change risks face oil exploration in Brazil's Equatorial Margin

The potential exploitation of oil in Brazil’s Equatorial Margin by Petrobras is being weighed against the escalating risks of the climate emergency. Drawing on Jean-Paul Sartre’s existentialist philosophy regarding the consequences of indecision, the discussion highlights the human and economic costs of failing to transition away from fossil fuels.

Climate projections, including reports from the IPCC and studies in Nature, suggest that climate change could result in a loss of up to 20% of global GDP by 2050. In Brazil, a Ministry of Management and Innovation report presented at COP-30 predicts a GDP loss of between 14% and 33% by 2070. Current extreme weather events, such as the 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul, are already causing an annual loss of 1.3% of the country's GDP.

Regarding human mortality, a 2025 study from the University of Exeter titled ‘Planetary Solvency’ suggests that depending on global temperature increases (1.5ºC versus 3.0ºC or more), human mortality could reach up to 4 billion people by the end of the century.