Climate change threatens to turn 50% of Brazil's Caatinga into semi-desert

Scientists warn that climate change is accelerating aridity and land degradation in Brazil's Caatinga region. Under high global warming scenarios, projections suggest that up to 50% of this semi-arid area could transform into a semi-desert.

José Marengo, a researcher at the National Center for Monitoring and Natural Disaster Alerts (Cemaden), noted that rising temperatures combined with human activity and ecosystem vulnerability threaten water availability, agricultural production, biodiversity, and living conditions for millions. Experts emphasized the distinction between aridity (a climatic condition), drought (a period of water deficit), and desertification (a process of land degradation).

A study by Luiz Bueno da Silva from the Federal University of Paraíba, analyzing productivity between 2004 and 2024, found that thermal stress associated with climate change has already become a limiting factor. The research indicated that thermal stress affected 26.1% of the studied territory, while land-use changes impacted 17.4%. Additionally, extreme droughts are being observed in the Amazon region.