Climate patterns influence East Asian weather and solar resources

Research into North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) patterns has identified a “warm-west/cold-east” dipole that can help predict reliable cold surge forecasts for East Asia. This dipole, when combined with specific SST configurations in other regions, allows for more accurate subseasonal forecasting of winter weather patterns.

In a separate analysis of summer 2026 solar resources, shifting atmospheric patterns significantly impacted solar irradiance across Asia. A northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High caused a reduction in irradiance in Northeast China due to increased cloud cover and rainfall, while simultaneously boosting irradiance in central China, particularly in the Sichuan Basin.

Additionally, the transition toward El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole reduced cloud cover in eastern Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, driving solar irradiance up to 25% above average, though smoke in western Indonesia partially limited these gains.