Climate studies link rising emissions to extreme heat and forest vulnerability

Recent scientific studies highlight the intensifying impact of greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events. Research published in Earth’s Future indicates that approximately 75% of the world's tropical forests experienced unprecedented simultaneous drought and heat during the 2023-2024 El Niño. This pattern may become the “new normal” over the next two decades if emissions are not reduced. The Amazon is identified as the most vulnerable region; without mitigation, the probability of severe droughts in this biome could increase ninefold by the end of the century.

Under extreme thermal stress, tropical forests risk functional collapse, potentially shifting from carbon sinks to carbon emitters. Additionally, a study in Geophysical Research Letters suggests that emissions recorded since the 2015 Paris Agreement contributed to the intensity of the June 2025 heatwave in Europe. Using generative AI models, researchers estimated a greater than 99% probability that accumulated emissions from the last decade increased the magnitude of such heat episodes, contributing roughly one-third of a degree Celsius to daily average temperatures in certain European regions.