Climate volatility disrupts global olive oil markets

Extreme weather and climate unpredictability are driving significant volatility in the global olive oil market. Localized climate events are disrupting harvests, causing irregular production cycles, and triggering price spikes that make markets difficult for producers and consumers to forecast.

In Greece, current estimates suggest olive oil production will fall between 280,000 and 330,000 tonnes. In the Crete region, the upcoming season faces challenges from summer droughts, varying rainfall levels, and pest pressure, shifting the industry focus toward balancing quantity with fruit quality.

Agricultural experts note that these environmental stressors are impacting long-term sector stability. In Spain, farmers report that traditional crops like olives and almonds are facing highly stressful conditions, which may discourage younger generations from investing in the sector due to economic uncertainty. Furthermore, supply volatility is contributing to rural depopulation as farm incomes become less reliable.