CNR and CSIC's CADI model warns that 1 in 6 farmland could lose productivity by 2100

Researchers from Italy's National Research Council (CNR) and Spain's Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) have created the Climate‑Driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI), a simulation platform that projects how climate change will affect agricultural productivity worldwide. Using four decades of environmental data from FAO and the Copernicus Earth‑observation programme, CADI analyses 10 × 10 km cells to estimate future yields under various warming scenarios up to the end of the century.

The model indicates that, without adaptation measures, roughly one‑sixth of global agricultural land could see a decline of more than 10 % in potential productivity. Southern Europe emerges as the most vulnerable region, with projected sharp drops in output, while some higher‑latitude areas such as Scandinavia and the Alps may experience modest gains. Tropical zones have already suffered the greatest losses, affecting about 15 % of the world’s population.

CADI is intended to help policymakers and farmers plan mitigation and adaptation strategies to safeguard food security for an estimated 10 % of the global food supply that could be at risk.