Cocoa production rises in Brazil amid global supply risks

The Brazilian cocoa industry saw a 25.3% increase in cocoa bean receipts during the 2025/26 harvest, reaching 226,497 tons. This growth was driven by improved management and favorable weather in key producing regions such as Pará and Bahia, as well as expansion in the Cerrado region. Despite the increase in volume, the National Association of Cocoa Processing Industries (AIPC) noted that industrial grinding is recovering at a slower pace.

Globally, the cocoa market faces potential volatility due to climate risks. A StoneX report indicates a slim global surplus of only 25,000 tons for the upcoming season. The threat of El Niño could tighten supply and drive up international prices. While Ecuador is expected to see record harvests, production in Ivory Coast—which accounts for over half of global output—is facing challenges due to heavy rains that have hindered fruit drying and crop yields. Any disruption in Ecuador could further strain the global balance.