Codelco faces production cut and debt amid global copper demand surge

Chile's state‑owned copper miner Codelco is under scrutiny after an internal audit revealed it overstated its 2025 output by about 27,000 tonnes, bringing its projected production to roughly 1.33 million metric tons – the lowest level in 27 years. The shortfall contributes to a looming global refined‑copper deficit of some 330,000 tonnes by 2026, driven by power‑grid expansion, electric‑vehicle production and AI data‑center electricity needs.

Codelco also carries about US$25 billion of debt and recently suffered a fatal accident at the El Teniente mine that killed six workers, prompting investigations into past reporting inconsistencies and executive dismissals. Amid these challenges, the Chilean government and industry officials are debating reforms ranging from asset sales and joint‑venture expansion to possible private‑capital involvement, while U.S. Section 232 tariffs on semi‑finished copper products add further pressure on exports.

The company reported $19.6 billion in revenue for 2025, a 15.4 % increase year‑over‑year, and plans $5.1 billion of capital spending through 2025, including a capacity ramp‑up at the Rajo Inca operation by 2027. Analysts note that reliable supply data from the world’s largest copper producer is crucial for markets, EV manufacturers and crypto‑mining firms reliant on copper‑intensive infrastructure.