Brazil coffee harvest faces quality risks from heavy rainfall

Researchers from Epamig have issued warnings regarding the 2026 coffee harvest in Brazil, citing excessive rainfall as a primary challenge. In Três Pontas, Minas Gerais, precipitation between May and July reached 141 mm, significantly higher than the levels recorded in previous years. This heavy rain has disrupted coffee tree physiology, caused out-of-season flowering, and hindered harvest and post-harvest operations by keeping soil excessively moist.

These conditions increase the risk of bean deterioration due to microorganisms and mycotoxins, such as ochratoxin A, and promote the survival of the coffee berry borer pest. While Brazil's coffee exports reached a 20-month high in September, with revenues totaling US$ 1.294 billion, market concerns persist regarding the quality of Arabica beans due to moisture levels.

On the New York exchange, coffee prices saw a slight increase, supported by a stronger Brazilian real, though the potential for increased supply from Brazil is limiting significant gains. The combination of high export volumes and concerns over grain quality continues to drive volatility in the global market.