Coffee prices rise in New York following three-month low

Coffee futures rose in New York on Friday, with December contracts increasing by 1.18% to $2.7860 per pound. This recovery follows a period of intense downward pressure that recently drove prices to a three-month low.

The price rebound was driven by technical buying and a decline in the US dollar, which prompted investors to cover short positions. However, the market remains caught between conflicting forces. On one side, a projected global surplus and favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam are weighing on prices. The International Coffee Organization recently estimated a record harvest of 183.6 million bags, a 4.4% increase from the previous year.

On the other side, historically low certified stocks at ICE provide support. While large trading firms are preparing significant shipments of Brazilian Arabica for certification—potentially easing stock tightness—the extremely low inventory levels continue to act as a floor for prices. Additionally, Conab has raised its 2026 production estimate for Brazil to 67.6 million bags.