College Football Week 8: New betting rating models introduced

Analyst Steve Makinen has introduced an experimental second set of projected point spreads for Week 8 of college football. This new model is designed to better reflect recent team performance, addressing discrepancies found in previous ratings.

Following a significant 14-point disagreement between Makinen’s original Effective Play-by-Play Ratings and the betting market in a Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky matchup, the updated model aims to account for recent trends rather than relying heavily on early-season data. For example, in the upcoming Iowa–Minnesota game, the new forecasted line suggests Iowa -17, compared to the betting line of Iowa -7 and the original rating of Iowa -5.5.

As the model is experimental, it currently lacks a historical track record to establish its accuracy. Analysts also noted that Sam Houston’s upcoming game against New Mexico State presents complex statistical factors, including differences in passing performance between FCS and FBS competition.