El Niño set to intensify globally, raising heat, drought and flood risks

The United Nations World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño will evolve rapidly into a strong episode (level 3 of 4) between July and September, boosting the likelihood of heat waves, droughts and intense rainfall worldwide. Observations already show the characteristic Pacific conditions.

In Chile’s Coquimbo region, meteorologists expect July‑August to be wetter than normal, with above‑average precipitation driven by El Niño and other atmospheric patterns.

Colombia’s environmental agency IDEAM estimates a 63 % chance that El Niño will become very strong by late 2026, likely reducing rainfall, raising temperatures and increasing fire and water‑stress risks. Energy analysts warn that higher heat and lower reservoir levels could curtail hydroelectric generation, prompting proposals such as a one‑hour clock shift that might shave about 2 % off national electricity use, though experts call it a marginal fix.

In Peru, the Special Project Chira‑Piura is conducting topobathymetric surveys of the Piura River to design a guide channel that will improve drainage and protect dikes against anticipated heavy rains.

Argentina’s Misiones province expert highlighted that El Niño, amplified by climate change, will bring more extreme precipitation, soil erosion, flood risks and higher temperatures, stressing agriculture and livestock and underscoring the need for basin‑level water management.