Colombia energy operator warns of increased thermal generation needs

XM, the administrator of Colombia's Wholesale Energy Market, has warned that thermal power generation must exceed 95 GWh per day next week to mitigate a critical decline in the country's water reserves.

National Interconnected System (SIN) reservoirs have seen water contributions fall below historical averages for three consecutive months. Projections indicate that the aggregate reservoir level, which stood at 78.87% on August 10, is expected to drop to 78.41% by August 23. This situation is exacerbated by climate forecasts suggesting a 95% probability of a “very strong” or “Super El Niño” event occurring between October and December.

Technical analyses indicate risks to system reliability due to several converging factors, including delays in new energy projects—with only 16.2% of expected megawatts for 2026 having entered the system—as well as grid capacity limitations, particularly in the Caribbean region.