Colombia faces energy security risks amid declining gas and oil production

Colombia is facing a critical period regarding its energy security due to a sustained decline in domestic oil and natural gas production. According to a report by the National Association of Financial Institutions (Anif), oil production fell to 729,000 barrels per day in May 2026, a 2.8% annual decrease. The natural gas situation is more severe, with production dropping nearly 48% over the last seven years, leaving the country dependent on imports for 30% of its supply.

This vulnerability is compounded by the expected arrival of a high-intensity El Niño phenomenon between October and December 2026. The resulting lack of rainfall is predicted to reduce hydroelectric generation, forcing a greater reliance on thermal plants that require natural gas. Anif warns this could add up to 60 basis points to inflation due to rising energy tariffs.

To mitigate these risks, the debate continues regarding the Reliability Charge (Cargo por Confiabilidad). Established by the CREG in 2006, this mechanism is designed to finance preventive measures and ensure backup power availability during droughts or fuel shortages. While some authorities have questioned the effectiveness of this investment, industry groups defend it as essential for maintaining the system's ability to prevent national blackouts.