2026 El Niño expected to intensify, prompting alerts from Peru to Greece

Scientific agencies have confirmed that a strong El Niño episode is developing in the equatorial Pacific. NOAA estimates a 63 % chance of a “very strong” event between November 2026 and January 2027, and satellite data from NASA/ESA show a massive Kelvin wave of warm water moving eastward, comparable to the 1982‑83 and 1997‑98 events. Experts warn that the phenomenon could become a “Super El Niño”, amplifying global temperature extremes.

The expected impacts are diverse. In South America, Peru and Colombia are preparing for severe floods, droughts and heat waves that could strain agriculture, water supplies and electricity generation. Colombia’s energy regulator (CREG) has proposed an incentive program to reward households that cut consumption, while the government warns of possible load‑shedding and higher electricity bills. Costa Rica’s UNED cautions that reduced rainfall may pressure water reservoirs, crops and hydro‑electric output.

In the Pacific, Tonga has declared an official El Niño, forecasting below‑average rainfall, heightened drought risk, and an increased likelihood of severe tropical cyclones for the 2026‑27 season. Italy and Greece note that the warming can alter regional weather patterns, potentially bringing hotter, drier summers and more variable winters.

Despite the threats, some sectors remain optimistic. Peru’s construction industry expects a 9‑11 % growth by year‑end, though it acknowledges the El Niño could disrupt projects if not managed. Overall, governments and agencies across the affected regions are urging preparedness measures and climate‑finance contributions to mitigate the expected humanitarian and economic stresses.