Colorado River Flow Forecast Drops to as Low as 16% of Normal Amid Record Drought

Colorado’s major rivers are set to run at a fraction of their usual volume this summer. Statewide streamflows are projected at only a quarter of normal for June and July, with the Colorado River headwaters basin expected to fall to just 16% of typical flow in some reaches. The Natural Resources Conservation Service attributes the shortfall to an “unusual volatile winter,” which produced the lowest snowpack on record and triggered an accelerated melt that emptied 91% of SNOTEL stations by June 1. Early runoff in March briefly spiked flows, but the rapid depletion left reservoirs with reduced storage—overall at about 75% of normal, down from 85% in May.

The diminished water supply threatens irrigation, municipal use, and downstream ecosystems across the Western Slope, intensifying drought conditions already marked by the U.S. Drought Monitor. While the state entered the water year with above‑average carryover, the current forecast signals severe strain on Colorado’s water resources throughout the summer months.