Colorado State University cuts 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast to well below normal

Colorado State University (CSU) researchers updated their 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on July 8, lowering the forecast to a well‑below‑normal season. The new projection calls for nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 50, far below the long‑term average of 123.

The downgrade is attributed to a strengthening El Niño, which is expected to increase vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, suppressing storm development. CSU quoted its team: “We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor.” The forecast also reduces the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline to 17% (average 43%).

If the forecast holds, 2026 would be the quietest Atlantic season since 2015. The first system, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed in June. Despite the reduced activity, CSU cautioned that a single landfalling hurricane can still cause significant impacts and urged coastal residents to remain prepared.