Colorado State University cuts Atlantic hurricane season forecast to 11 named storms

Colorado State University researchers have lowered their outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, now expecting 11 named storms, down from the 13 predicted in April. Five of those storms are projected to become hurricanes and two are expected to reach major hurricane strength.

The revision is driven by a strong El Niño developing in the central Pacific, which is expected to increase vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and inhibit storm development. The updated forecast is consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s earlier below‑normal outlook and similar predictions from AccuWeather.

According to the university’s report, there is a 24% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. east coast and a 14% chance of a major landfall on the Gulf Coast—both below average probabilities. Officials caution that residents should still prepare for the possibility of impactful storms despite the reduced activity forecast.