Colorado State University predicts below‑average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

Colorado State University (CSU) kept its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at well‑below‑normal levels. The team projects 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes and only 1 major hurricane, unchanged from its July update. Landfall probabilities for the continental United States have slipped further, now estimated at 16 % for the entire coastline, 7 % for the East Coast, and 9 % for the Gulf Coast, with a 17 % chance of a major hurricane in the Caribbean—each metric well below long‑term averages.

NOAA’s seasonal outlook aligns, assigning a 55 % chance of a below‑normal season, 35 % near‑normal and 10 % above‑normal. The agency and CSU cite a strong El Niño expected to dominate the peak months, suppressing tropical activity. To date, only two weak tropical storms—Arthur (landfall June 17 on the Upper Texas Coast) and Bertha (landfall July 22 in Louisiana after affecting the Florida Panhandle)—have formed in the Atlantic basin.