Commodities bull market driven by maritime crises and supply shortages

A commodities and precious metals bull market is being driven by severe supply shortages, rising global debt, and intense geopolitical conflicts. Factors such as mine depletion, declining ore grades, and supply underinvestment are creating resource scarcity. This scarcity is further exacerbated by the intersection of AI infrastructure demands, defense spending, electrification, and decarbonization efforts.

Global maritime routes are facing an unprecedented crisis as the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea are simultaneously disrupted by conflict. In the Strait of Hormuz, weekly commercial traffic has dropped approximately 90% below prewar levels, impacting crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments.

In the Red Sea, Houthi forces have renewed drone and missile strikes and declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabian ports. The Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical passage for oil and grain, is no longer considered reliably open. Consequently, many ships are bypassing the Suez Canal in favor of the longer route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days to transit times.