COP31 preparations face tension over 1.5-degree limit and IPCC reports

Preparations for the COP31 climate summit, scheduled to begin on November 9 in Antalya, Türkiye, are marked by significant diplomatic friction. Disagreements have emerged regarding the inclusion of the 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit and the scheduling of upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.

Small island states and the European Union are advocating for the 1.5-degree threshold to remain the primary benchmark for evaluating emissions reduction commitments. Conversely, countries including Saudi Arabia and India have questioned these references. Vulnerable nations argue that maintaining this scientific threshold is essential for survival, as even fractional increases in temperature pose existential threats to coastal resources and habitability.

Further tension exists regarding the timing of new scientific assessments. Efforts by some nations, including major oil producers, to delay IPCC reports could leave the 2028 global assessment without updated scientific data. This comes as the United Nations warns that current global policies are on a trajectory toward 2.8 degrees of warming this century.