Copepod populations in Northwest European seas face potential collapse by 2100

New research published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment indicates that copepod populations in Northwest European shelf seas could face substantial declines by 2100 due to climate change. These tiny zooplankton serve as a critical link in marine food webs, converting energy from phytoplankton into food for higher predators such as fish, seabirds, and marine mammals.

Using a high-resolution machine-learning model trained on long-term observations from the Marine Biological Association’s Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey, researchers identified several drivers for this potential collapse. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, rising sea temperatures, reduced nutrient levels, and a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are expected to significantly reduce copepod abundance.

Because copepods are essential to the energy flow of marine ecosystems, their decline poses a threat to commercially important fish species and the coastal economies that depend on them. While zooplankton abundances in the Northeast Atlantic have already declined over the last 60 years, the scale of future impact remains uncertain as climate change continues.