Copper markets react to potential U.S. tariff increases

The prospect of new United States tariffs on refined copper is significantly impacting global copper markets. Analysts from Societe Generale note that the price difference between COMEX futures in the U.S. and the London Metal Exchange (LME) is increasingly being used by investors as an indicator of expected tariff impositions.

Currently, the U.S. imposes a 50% tariff on certain copper semi-finished products. The U.S. Department of Commerce has proposed a phased implementation of a general tariff on refined copper, starting at 15% on January 1, 2027, and increasing to 30% on January 1, 2028. This shift follows potential investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, with market participants monitoring the COMEX premium as a signal for further trade policy actions.