Costa Rica child population projected to fall 28% by 2033

Costa Rica is projected to experience a 28% decrease in its population of children aged 5 to 14 by the year 2033, according to the OECD “Education at a Glance 2026” report. This decline is significantly steeper than the 9% average decrease projected for OECD member nations during the same period.

The demographic shift also extends to younger age groups, with the population of children aged four or younger expected to drop by 16% between 2024 and 2033. This trend suggests that the reduction in school enrollment may persist beyond the next decade.

While a shrinking student population may impact educational infrastructure, the OECD notes that a decrease in students does not automatically necessitate a proportional reduction in teaching staff. Factors such as classroom size, instructional time, teacher working hours, and geographic distribution remain critical determinants for teacher demand.