Costco Outpaces Walmart as Gas Prices Boost Retail Performance

Costco Wholesale has outperformed Walmart and the broader S&P 500 in 2026, driven by a surge in gasoline sales. Rising fuel prices, tied to heightened Middle‑East tensions, have led Costco members to fill up at its discount stations, delivering "record‑breaking" fuel volumes. The retailer reports that about half of gas shoppers also purchase groceries and other items inside its warehouses, reinforcing a cross‑shopping dynamic that supports higher overall sales.

Walmart, by contrast, sees its fuel‑center customers buying fewer than 10 gallons per visit – the lowest level since 2022 – indicating financial strain among its lower‑income clientele. Analysts view Costco’s discounted fuel and affluent membership base as a structural advantage in a high‑gas‑price environment, while Walmart’s core customers become more budget‑conscious. Both companies trade at premium price‑to‑earnings multiples (Costco 48.8, Walmart 42.3) but Costco’s fuel business accounts for roughly 10% of net sales, providing a meaningful revenue buffer.

The divergent gasoline trends are being used by investors as a signal of which retailer is better insulated from inflationary pressure on American consumers.