Critical raw materials demand poses supply chain risks for Europe

A study by Eurispes highlights the growing industrial challenges and geopolitical implications of critical raw materials (CRMs). The global trade of these materials reached approximately $1.925 trillion in 2023, with over $770 billion linked directly to the energy transition.

Europe faces extreme vulnerabilities, with import dependency approaching 100% for several key materials, including lithium, magnesium, niobium, titanium, and various rare earths. This dependency impacts not only the energy transition—affecting batteries, electric vehicles, and renewable energy infrastructure—but also the digital economy, including semiconductors, 5G technology, and fiber optics.

Demand is projected to rise sharply. According to International Energy Agency scenarios, lithium demand could increase by 242% by 2030 and 794% by 2050 under a Net Zero pathway. Graphite demand may rise by 237% by 2040. The study notes that the primary challenge is not geological availability, but the capacity to develop refining and production infrastructure fast enough to meet accelerating demand.