Cuba faces accelerating population decline as births plunge 62% since 1990

Cuba recorded 71,358 births in 2024, a 62% drop from the 186,658 births in 1990 and the lowest level in at least 65 years. The crude birth rate fell to 7.2 per 1,000 inhabitants and the fertility rate to 1.29 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1. In the same year, deaths reached 130,645, creating a natural decrease of 56,740 people.

The national population fell to 9.748 million by the end of 2024, reflecting a loss of over 307,000 people from the previous year and more than 1.4 million since 2020. Emigration and an aging population—25.7% of Cubans are now aged 60 or older, the highest share in Latin America—exacerbate the demographic squeeze. The United Nations Population Fund warned that, if current trends continue, Cuba’s population could shrink to about 5.6 million by 2100.

Experts call for a shift toward “demographic resilience,” urging policies that adapt to the new age structure, redistribute care responsibilities, and redesign health and education systems rather than attempting to reverse the long‑term decline.