Cuba faces political uncertainty regarding Raúl Castro's legacy

The political future of Cuba faces significant uncertainty regarding the eventual passing of Raúl Castro. While institutional leadership has already transitioned to Miguel Díaz-Canel, Castro remains a vital informal authority and a key figure from the founding revolutionary generation capable of mediating conflicts within the ruling coalition.

His absence could impact the internal balance of power at a critical time. Cuba is currently navigating severe economic, energy, and social crises, characterized by frequent blackouts, shortages, and social unrest. The government is attempting to address these issues through 176 economic measures intended to increase the model's adaptability.

Potential political scenarios following the loss of Castro's informal authority include authoritarian continuity, elite fragmentation, economic liberalization without democratization, social mobilization crises, or a negotiated transition. The stability of the system relies heavily on personal networks, historical loyalties, and the influence of the Revolutionary Armed Forces.