Cuba meteorologists forecast heavy September rains and El Niño intensification

Meteorologists from the Institute of Meteorology's Climate Center report that September is typically one of the rainiest months in Cuba. This increase in precipitation is driven by the decrease of the Atlantic anticyclone compared to July and August, alongside the frequent passage of tropical waves and lows.

Experts note an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclone formation in the region, which significantly impacts the country. While activity is expected to be slightly lower than in October, these systems often cause major rainfall events.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been intensifying through August, with high sea surface temperature anomalies observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Models suggest ENSO will likely reach a ‘very strong’ category in September and persist through the 2026–2027 autumn and winter seasons.

Despite the seasonal trend of heavy rain, specific models for September 2026 suggest precipitation may fall below average across the national territory. Temperature estimates for the western, central, and eastern regions are projected to range between 31.7°C and 32.9°C.