Cuba: Skepticism grows over economic reforms and regime change strategies

Analysis of the current political and economic situation in Cuba highlights skepticism regarding the government's recent “transformations.” Critics argue that the official narrative surrounding these economic and social reforms is disconnected from reality, suggesting they are recycled initiatives intended to buy time during negotiations with the United States rather than genuine solutions to the country's crisis.

In a broader political context, economist Miguel Alejandro Hayes has challenged prevailing theories on how Cuban political change might occur. Analyzing 716 instances of autocratic leaders exiting power globally between 1950 and 2025, Hayes notes that 60% of such transitions occur through internal regime rules, while only 2.4% result from popular uprisings. His findings suggest that common expectations for change—such as foreign military intervention or economic sanctions—have historically low success rates in toppling dictatorships, complicating the strategic debate within the Cuban opposition.