Cuba's informal dollar and euro rates fall below 610 and 700 CUP

On June 29‑30 2026 Cuba’s informal foreign‑exchange market showed a sharp correction: the U.S. dollar dropped to about 605‑610 Cuban pesos (CUP) and the euro to 700 CUP, after reaching 695 CUP and 800 CUP respectively just a week earlier. The move fits the “overshooting” pattern described by economist Rudi Dornbusch, where rapid currency spikes are followed by partial declines that settle at higher-than‑original levels. Analysts cite similar cycles in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, each driven by a mix of policy announcements, rumors and crowd‑behavior.

The recent decline occurred days after the Cuban government approved its most extensive reform package in decades – 176 economic measures passed by the National Assembly on 18 June. Independent economist Pedro Monreal said the market’s reaction “contradicts official expectations” and that the reforms have not yet stabilized the scarce foreign‑currency market. Observers note that while the informal rate has eased, the official MLC (convertible peso) remained around 500 CUP, indicating continued pressure on Cuba’s economy.