Dairy market sees rising exports and projected price increases

The global dairy market is experiencing significant shifts characterized by rising export volumes and impending price increases for fresh products. Between January and May 2026, global exports of milk powder rose by 12.6%, with New Zealand seeing a 16% increase. Demand has grown strongly in China and Algeria. Cheese exports also rose by 6.3%, driven by demand in China, Mexico, and South Korea.

In Germany, the Milchindustrie-Verband (MIV) warns that prices for fresh dairy products, such as milk and yogurt, are expected to rise following a five-year low. This trend is attributed to high demand, regional summer droughts, and potential supply shortages caused by the El Niño effect. Additionally, a boom in whey protein concentrate demand is tightening the available milk supply.

Simultaneously, the industry is undergoing structural changes through consolidation. Major players like Müller and Arla are pursuing acquisitions, such as the planned takeover of DMK, which increases market concentration. While raw material prices like butter are rising, intense price competition among retailers like Aldi and Lidl continues to pressure farmers, often forcing them to sell below production costs.