Denmark cross-border trade impact estimated lower by researchers

A University of Copenhagen study suggests that cross-border shopping has a significantly lower impact on Danish tax revenue than previously estimated by the Ministry of Taxation. While the Ministry estimated a loss of 1.16 billion DKK in 2019 due to cross-border trade, researchers found the actual figure to be approximately 415 million DKK, a reduction of over 60 percent.

The study analyzed consumer habits during the 2020 and 2021 COVID-19 lockdowns when border trade was restricted. Researchers noted that the Ministry’s calculations assumed all goods purchased in Germany would have been bought in Denmark if the borders were closed, but data shows this is not the case. The impact of cross-border shopping is most notable for residents living within 30 kilometers of the border, whereas consumption patterns for those living 120 kilometers or further away remained largely unchanged during lockdowns.

Separately, Donald Trump has stated that oil prices are expected to fall sharply following the conclusion of the conflict with Iran, which he anticipates will end shortly after the November 3 midterm elections. This comes amid record-high fuel prices in Denmark, where diesel reached its highest levels in September.