Demographic crisis threatens long-term population stability in Italy and Germany

The Eurozone is facing a significant demographic crisis, with long-term population declines projected for several major economies. According to an analysis in the European Central Bank (ECB) economic bulletin, Italy and Germany are expected to experience the most prolonged periods of population decrease through the end of the century.

In Italy, birth rates have reached historic lows for three consecutive years, approaching 355,000 births annually. This is a sharp decline from the one million births recorded in the early 1960s. Projections suggest that by 2070, Italy's population could decrease by nearly 11%, a figure that accounts for immigration. Without immigration, the decline could reach 33%, potentially reducing the resident population to 40 million within half a century. The aging population and the rise of smaller, childless family units are key drivers of this trend, often linked to economic instability and insecurity among young people.

Data from the EUROPOP 2025 report indicates that while the Eurozone population may peak at approximately 361.4 million in 2037, a downward trend will follow. This shift will be characterized by an increasing proportion of citizens aged 65 and older, alongside a reduction in both children and the working-age population. In contrast to the declines in Italy and Germany, Spain shows more positive demographic trends.