Demographic decline to reduce student numbers in Málaga and Huelva

A report titled ‘The impact of demography on the Spanish educational system’, published jointly by the Fundación Ramón Areces and the Fundación Europea Sociedad y Educación, forecasts a significant decline in student enrollment across Spain due to falling birth rates.

In the province of Málaga, the study predicts a loss of approximately 32,417 students by 2035. The most substantial decreases are expected in Primary education, with over 11,600 fewer students, and Compulsory Secondary Education (ESO), which is projected to see a drop of about 9,500 students within five years.

Huelva is also expected to see a decline of 7,190 students over the next decade. The only educational stage projected to see growth is the first cycle of Early Childhood Education (ages 0 to 3), with an estimated increase of 4,956 new students, likely due to measures adopted by the Junta de Andalucía.

The report attributes the declining fertility rates to several factors, including economic uncertainty, difficulties balancing professional and family life, unequal distribution of domestic tasks, and high housing costs. The study notes that birth rates in Málaga have dropped from 19,149 in 1975 to 11,719 in 2024, while Huelva saw births fall from 8,171 in 1975 to 3,618 in 2024.