Italy faces demographic decline as population projections signal long-term contraction

Italy is facing a significant demographic decline, with Istat projections suggesting the population could drop to 45.8 million by 2080. A critical turning point is expected by 2047, when childless couples are projected to outnumber those with children for the first time in the nation's history. This trend is already visible in cities like Oristano, where fewer than one-third of families have children, and birth rates are significantly lower than mortality rates.

In 2025, Italian expatriation decreased by 22.7% compared to the previous year, with 109,000 people moving abroad, primarily to EU countries like Spain and Germany. This shift follows stricter registration norms introduced in 2024.

In response to declining birth rates, researchers in Finland have proposed a “reverse pension” fund called Vauvasampo. The model suggests the state invest €5,000 at a child's birth into stock market securities, with the accumulated capital paid out to parents upon the birth of their first, second, and third children to provide economic incentives for starting families.