Khan surname projected to overtake Smith in England and Wales

Official data from the Office for National Statistics indicates a significant shift in the most common surnames among newborns in England and Wales. The surname Smith, which has held the top position for centuries, is projected to be overtaken by Khan as early as 2027 if current trends continue.

In 2025, 4,102 babies were registered with the surname Smith, compared to 3,772 with the surname Khan. Statistical analysis shows Smith is declining at an average annual rate of 4%, while Khan is increasing by approximately 1.9% per year. This demographic change is reflected in the top ten list of surnames, which has transitioned from being entirely traditional British names in 1996 to including several South Asian and Muslim-origin names such as Ahmed, Ali, Hussain, Singh, Patel, and Kaur.

Nuni Jorgensen, a researcher at the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, attributes these shifts to increased immigration from South Asian countries, particularly since 2021, alongside changing fertility rates. Specifically, as birth rates among UK-born women decline, mothers with migration backgrounds represent a larger proportion of total births. Additionally, Muhammad has become the most common first name for boys born in England and Wales.