Demographic shifts show growing Muslim populations in Russia

While Vladimir Putin utilizes the Russian Orthodox Church to legitimize his authority, demographic trends in Russia indicate significant growth in the Muslim population. Currently, an estimated 15 to 20 million Muslims live in Russia, representing approximately 10 to 15 percent of the total population. The majority are Sunni, with about 10 percent identifying as Shia.

This demographic shift is driven by higher birth rates in Muslim-majority regions such as Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia, alongside migration from Central Asian countries like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. In contrast, the Slavic population is facing aging and declining birth rates. Some projections suggest Muslims could constitute between one-quarter and one-third of the Russian population by 2050.

In Germany, data from BAMF indicates that between 6.6 and 7 million people with migration backgrounds from Islamic countries lived in the country in 2025. This accounts for roughly 8 to 8.5 percent of the total population, an increase of 1.6 to 1.8 percent since 2019, largely due to migration from crisis regions in the Middle East and North Africa.