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Diamond market shifts as lab-grown stones challenge natural supply
The global diamond market is undergoing a major structural shift as lab-grown diamonds (LGDs) challenge the dominance of natural stones. This transition is driven by industrial-scale production in China and India, which offers lower costs and faster delivery than traditional mining.
In India, LGDs have begun to surpass natural diamonds in export volume. During the 2025-2026 period, India exported 18.84 million carats of polished lab-grown diamonds compared to 16 million carats of natural diamonds. However, natural diamonds still maintain a significant lead in total value.
Traditional producers, particularly in Botswana, face economic risks as the rise of LGDs pressures natural diamond prices. De Beers reported that natural diamond prices remain 20% to 30% below post-pandemic highs. The company also closed its Lightbox brand in 2025 following a 90% collapse in wholesale prices for lab-grown jewelry diamonds.
Simultaneously, the natural diamond market is seeing a contraction in supply. India's rough diamond imports fell 16% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with direct imports from Russia dropping by 62%. While tighter supply may support prices for certain natural diamond categories, the increasing industrial capacity of China and India remains a primary competitive force.
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- [○ 1 SOURCE] De Beers closed its Lightbox brand in 2025 following a 90% drop in wholesale prices for jewelry-grade lab-grown diamonds. managers.tn
- [○ 1 SOURCE] India's direct diamond imports from Russia fell by 62% to $106 million.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] India's rough diamond imports decreased by 16% year-on-year to $7.1 billion in the first half of 2026.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] During the 2025-2026 fiscal year, India exported 18.84 million carats of polished lab-grown diamonds, surpassing the 16 million carats of natural diamonds exported. managers.tn
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Rough diamond prices declined by 8% in fiscal year 2025.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Natural diamond prices are currently 20% to 30% below their post-pandemic peaks.