Donald Trump voters swing toward Democrats, raising doubts for 2024 and 2028 races

New Pew Research data shows that U.S. non‑voters – historically low‑turnout voters – have shifted sharply toward the Democratic Party, moving from a 4‑point Republican advantage in 2024 to a +12‑point Democratic lead. The poll reports that 47% of adults now identify as Democrats, 43% as Republicans, and 10% as independents.

Separate focus‑group research reveals that Trump supporters are increasingly distrustful of Vice President JD Vance, describing him as lacking charisma and saying he “gives them the willies.” Analysts suggest this sentiment could affect the 2028 presidential contest, where Vance or another Trump‑backed candidate may be positioned as the Republican nominee.

Both findings point to a potential erosion of the traditional Trump voter base, with implications for the upcoming 2024 election and the shape of the Republican field in 2028.